Marin Real Estate Blog

Why Morgan Lane is the Best Real Estate Brokerage in Marin

2010-02-22T18:21:00Z

Marin County Home Sales, Real Estate Sales, Statistics for week ending 15th of February 2010

2010-02-15T19:20:00Z

Marin Real Estate or Home Market Statistics for All Marin Cities

2010-02-01T18:03:00Z

Here is this weeks, (1/31/10) Marin Real Estate or Home Market Stats for All Marin Cities.

Ferdal Reserve Meeting, how will it affect Marin Real Estate Interest Rates

2009-08-12T21:02:00Z

How does this effect interest rates?
Something to consider is that as bond prices rise, interest rates fall. As bond prices fall, interest rates rise including large movements in the Stock Market. This concept is simple if you think in terms of where money comes from. Investors have basically 2 places to put their money; in the stock market or the bond market. Since money is a finite resource, if people are buying stocks, they typically have to pull that money out of the bond market and vice versa, thus they typically move opposite of each other. In October the fed will continue to buy mortgage back securities but discontinue to buy treasury bonds. This might drive up interest rates, however the fed has a very strong interest in keeping interest rates low, as the housing and real estate sector are at the heart of our crisis. Read on from articles from NPR and the New York Times-

NPR
By Laura Conaway

The Federal Reserve today announced that it will wind up its planned $300 billion program for buying government debt from financial institutions by the end of October, since the economy is "leveling off." The Fed has bought $253 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds from banks in an effort to get more money moving through the economy. If banks are holding cash instead of Treasurys, the thinking goes, they'll be more likely to lend to people and businesses.

The Fed also announced it will not be raising its key interest rate, the federal funds rate. This target rate is the amount the Federal Reserve hopes banks will charge for overnight loans to other banks. The decisions come after a two-day meeting by the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy and works to carry it out.

The Federal Reserve lowered the rate on Dec. 16, 2008, by a range -- of .75 to 1 percent -- to a record-low of zero to .25 percent.

Since then the economy has begun to show signs of turning around. Unemployment dipped by .1 to 9.4 percent in July, exports are on the increase and gross domestic product was shrinking more slowly last quarter than the quarter before.

With such a low target rate, the Federal Reserve risks creating inflation when the economy gets going again. The Fed began buying Treasurys from banks to lower the interest rate and increase the supply of cash. The Fed has bought so many government bonds that it has tripled its assets to $2 trillion in the last year. Recently, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has reportedly been doubling its staff of traders to help manage its ballooning portfolio.

If the economy does recover, demand will increase and producers may start raising prices; a surplus of cash could fuel an uncomfortable level of inflation. Some economists, including Allan Meltzer, have urged the Fed to raise the rate soon.

So far, wages and most prices have stayed relatively flat. Last month, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that he belives the rate will need to stay low for "an extended period. Bernanke added, "[W]e also believe that it is important to assure the public and the markets that the extraordinary policy measures we have taken in response to the financial crisis and the recession can be withdrawn in a smooth and timely manner as needed, thereby avoiding the risk that policy stimulus could lead to a future rise in inflation."

Today's statement, by Bernanke and the other Federal Open Market Committee members, says the Fed "expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time."

New York Times -

WASHINGTON — Almost exactly two years after it embarked on the biggest financial rescue in American history, the Federal Reserve acknowledged on Wednesday that the economy was pulling out of its downward spiral and announced a step back toward normal policy.

Though the central bank stopped well short of declaring victory, policy makers issued their most optimistic assessment in more than a year by noting signs of stabilization in household spending, financial markets and inventory building by corporations.

“Economic activity is leveling out,” the Fed board said Wednesday after a two-day meeting.

In the statement, the Fed also said that “the committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.”

The central bank cautioned, however, that the recovery would slow and that unemployment would probably remain high for the next year,and it reiterated that it would keep its benchmark short-term interest rate at virtually zero for an extended period.

But it also announced that it would wrap up its program to buy $300 billion worth of Treasury bonds by the end of October. The program was one of several tools invoked to drive down long-term interest rates and indirectly reduce the cost of home mortgages and corporate borrowing.

The move signaled that policy makers were confident enough to remove one of their emergency props for the financial markets. In its statement, the central bank acknowledged that conditions in both the stock market and the credit markets had improved in the last several months.

At the same time, Fed officials made it clear they were not about to throttle back their biggest emergency credit programs. The central bank is barely halfway through its plan to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, a program that directly affects home mortgage rates and has had a much more noticeable effect than the Treasury bond program.

Analysts said the Federal Reserve had entered a wait-and-see period, continuing to supply the economy with cheap money but not expanding or extending the emergency programs beyond what policy makers had already been announced.

Despite growing confidence that the worst of the crisis is behind them, Fed officials made it clear they were still more worried about rising unemployment than a resurgence of inflation.

The government’s preliminary estimates show that the economy’s downturn slowed sharply in recent months, contracting only 1 percent in the second quarter compared with 6.4 percent in the first. The rate of job losses has slowed sharply as well, though the nation still lost 247,000 jobs in July.

But the most recent forecasts by Fed policy makers anticipate that the economy will begin an unusually slow recovery in the second half of this year and only gradually pick up speed in 2010. Even if all goes according to plan, the Fed forecast envisions that unemployment will climb from its already high level of 9.4 percent and average as much as 9.8 percent through the end of 2010.

“The balance of risks is still tilted toward weakness in growth and employment, and not toward higher inflation,” said William C. Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in a speech on July 29. Mr. Dudley said it was “premature to talk about ‘when’ we are going to exit from this period of unusual policy accommodation.”

Rising productivity rates in the United States are giving the Fed more maneuvering room. The productivity of workers, the amount produced per hour of work, shot up at an annual rate of more than 6 percent in the second quarter and has been climbing throughout the recession.

That is unusual for an economic downturn, but it means that wages have more room to climb before employers start to raise prices for their goods and services.

The Fed’s decision to end its program of buying Treasury bonds appears to reflect both practical and philosophical concerns among some policy makers.

According to minutes of the Fed’s previous policy meeting in June, some policy makers worried that the central bank’s heavy purchases of new Treasury debt would be seen by investors as simply financing the federal government’s huge deficits. That, they feared, would erode the Fed’s credibility and heighten inflation expectations.

“Some of those who are less disposed to additional Treasury purchases worry about the perception in the markets that they are motivated by a desire to help the Treasury finance a mountain of debt,” Laurence H. Meyer, chief economist at Macroeconomic Advisers, and a former Fed governor, wrote in a note to clients last week.

By contrast, Mr. Meyer said, most policy makers seem to agree that the mortgage-security program strikes at the heart of the economy’s biggest problem — the housing market.

On a practical level, analysts said, the Treasury-buying program never packed as much punch in the markets.

At $300 billion, the Treasury purchases are only one-quarter as big as the mortgage program, and they have equaled only about one-third of the new issuance of Treasury securities, according to Ira Jersey, an interest-rate analyst at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets. By contrast, the Fed purchases of government-guaranteed mortgage securities equaled more than 100 percent of new issuance in that market.

Though mortgage rates have edged up in recent weeks, along with other long-term interest rates, the spread between mortgage rates and risk-free Treasury rates has narrowed by almost half since last November.
“The program to buy Treasuries wasn’t as effective as some of the other programs, like the mortgage-security program, so ending it made sense,” Mr. Jersey said.

Marin Real Estate July Newsletter and Stats

2009-08-03T18:21:00Z

Buyers Are Back and Seeking Opportunity-
Don’t Confuse Activity with Appreciation

Recent escrow activity levels have been refreshing if not invigorating. New escrows generated in April –
June ’09 represent the three best months since June ’07. This progress seems to be continuing.

In fact, we could experience the busiest summer in Marin County real estate in recent years.
This increase in activity (not price appreciation) follows the slowest six month stretch we have seen in
sixteen years. Closings of Marin County single family homes in the 4th quarter of ’08 (457) was the lowest
since 1994. Closings in 1st quarter ’09 (222) and 2nd quarter ’09 (421) both set the sixteen year low as well.
We feel this recent rally is a reflection of increasing consumer confidence either as a result of, or in combination
with, the stock market rebound which began in March ’09.

Apr – Jun              $500K - $1M                $1M & Up                            $1 - $3M                   $3 Million +
Volume                        7.09%                       -56.24%    -49.81%                     -76.61%
Units Sold                  9.31%                         -51.49%    -49.16%                    -70.00%
Average Price            -2.03%                           -9.66%                                -1.27%                     -17.02%
Median Price              -2.28%                          -1.87%                                  1.38%                     -14.35%
Days on Market         41.77%                         29.69%                                  1.27%                      15.53%

On a year-over-year basis, pricing of single family homes in Marin County is a completely different
comparison. Depending on your neighborhood, the value of your home could be off 15% - 40% from its
peak. As we have documented in previous newsletters, Marin County real estate was impacted by two
financial factors. Beginning in August 2007, the northern part of the county (Novato and areas of San
Rafael) suffered from the sub-prime lending crisis. The activity level in Central and Southern Marin was
nearly frozen from October ’08 thru mid-March ’09- a result of the stock market meltdown.
Now, our recovery is driven by an increase in units sold. Today’s buyers are driven by value and opportunity.
Sellers clinging to what they recently paid for a home or what they need to sell it for seem to be
grasping at “hope” and have become frustrated in a buyers’ market where days on the market produces
diminishing returns.
To transition the above table to positive/green indicators and price appreciation, we will need to see a
substantial increase and sustained level of demand. May and June ’09 activity may represent the beginning
of this recovery. However, the current rally is in units sold, not price appreciation.
Buyer opportunities in the Marin market are extraordinary. The recent pricing of homes back to levels seen
in the early part of the decade, combined with very attractive mortgage rates and flexible, if not motivated
sellers, represent ideal conditions for investing in Marin County real estate. If you compare your investment
in Marin County real estate to other prestigious communities throughout the USA or the results in the stock
markets, Marin County real estate may be the best performing asset in your portfolio.
For details on your home or investment strategy, please feel free to call us.

For more detailed information and graphs please see our attached quarterly newsletter -

Our Quarterly Newsletter

More Marin Home Sales Stats June 2009

2009-08-03T17:58:00Z

Residential and Non-Residential Improved Properties
Type	#Sales	$Total
Single Family Properties
1 Living unit	228	$193,798,487
Multi Family Properties
2 Living units	10	9,092,500
3 Living units	1	380,000
Commercial, Industrial & Rural Properties
0 Living units	2	5,465,040
Residential and Non-Residential Improved Properties
SUM	241	$208,736,027

Marin Real Estate Sales for June 2009, Marin Home Statistics

2009-08-03T17:57:00Z

Marin Real Estate Sales for June 2009
Single Family Homes
	Conventional Detached Dwellings			Condominiums/Townhouses
City	#Sales	Mean price	Median	#Sales	Mean price	Median
Belvedere	1	$950,000	$950,000	0
Corte Madera	10	789,000	735,500	2	555,000	555,000
Fairfax	9	644,222	719,000	1	365,000	365,000
Larkspur	9	1,209,667	1,235,000	1	408,500	408,500
Mill Valley	15	1,624,233	1,425,000	3	762,000	840,000
Novato	30	622,257	580,000	14	286,321	223,250
Ross	5	2,128,200	2,300,000	0
San Anselmo	14	784,111	771,250	1	214,300	214,300
San Rafael	29	777,908	758,000	20	311,378	280,000
Sausalito	1	922,000	922,000	1	1,065,000	1,065,000
Tiburon	6	1,800,703	1,592,500	1	126,935	126,935
Unincorporated	45	1,090,971	955,000	10	443,270	406,000
Total	174	$997,437	$827,500	54	$374,898	$358,350
Total Single Family Homes Sold: 228
Mean / Median Home Sale Price: $849,993 / $722,000
Mean Home Living Area: 1,838 sq. ft.

Marin Home Sale Statistics

2009-07-13T21:17:00Z

June has some interesting stories to tell about the Marin real estate market. Here is a sneak-peak of more statistics to come later next week.

The percentage of homes under contract at a given price point can tell a seller how much demand there is for her home and a buyer how much competition she has for her home of choice. While we all love to look at our little niche, there are three major segments of the Marin single-family home market. I am showing only three, because the under contract rates are very similar in each of these ranges:

- Under $750K
- $750K to $1.5M
- Over $1.5M

These three segments tell the entire story. Lower under contract rates translate to more time on the market and more time between offers.

If your home is listed under $750K, 49% of your competitors were under contract in June.

If your home is between $750K and $1.5M, then 24% are under contract.

If your home is over $1.5M, then only 10% are under contract.

Also, notice that the majority of homes under contract (180 in June) were under $750K, with 119 homes under contract from $750K to $1.5M. The market over $1.5M had only 35 homes under contract.

At every price level, sellers need to prepare themselves for longer times on the market and long negotiations with buyers. Buyers need to be prepared for 'hold-out' sellers who are unwilling to negotiate price or terms. The market is neither for buyers or sellers right now, instead it is for patient dealmakers who listen carefully and proceed with integrity.

Real estate is still about people, and the best deals are made by those who work hard to meet the needs of everyone involved.

Marin home sales May

2009-06-08T17:03:00Z

Marin home sales down from last year, up from last month

Jim Staats

Posted: 05/21/2009 01:25:45 PM PDT

The median price of Marin home sales dropped 27 percent from last year's level, but showed some rebound from recent activity to match Bay Area trends.

The median price of a single-family home in Marin in April was $743,500, down from $935,000 last year, and 130 single-family homes were sold - down from 165 in April 2008, MDA DataQuick of San Diego, a real estate information service, reported Thursday.

In March, the median single-family home price in Marin was $670,000 and 111 single-family homes were sold.

April's figures included 43 condo sales with a median price of $357,000, down from the $508,000 median a year earlier.

For all home sales in the county, the median was $585,000, down 27 percent from the $800,000 median a year ago. The median price equaled last month's median.

Last month's statistics included total sales of 174 single-family homes and condominiums, up from 161 in April 2008.

Corina Rollins, a Greenbrae appraiser and real-estate instructor at College of Marin, said "in virtually all market segments in Marin County what is becoming more evident is a buildup in available inventory.

"The causes are varied, but the results are classic economic theory - fewer buyers with more choices," Rollins said.

She said conversations with agents and others indicated an active market of multiple offers for distressed homes, while those trying to sell high-end properties are seeing deals fail due to financing bottlenecks and reluctance on the part of lenders.

John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, said the past few months have shown some signs "that would normally suggest many markets are nearing price stabilization.

"But we'll need to see those vital signs continue to strengthen into the fall," he said. "Job losses and historically high foreclosure levels continue to pose serious threats to housing stability."

Market distress indicators continued to move in opposite directions, DataQuick reported. Foreclosure activity remained at historically high levels, while use of adjustable-rate mortgages and financing with multiple mortgages was at an all-time low.

Analysts said a major factor bringing down median prices was an unusually low level of high-end home sales, which have become under-represented in Bay Area statistics.

"It's been terrible," said Realtor Dana Johnson, of luxury home brokerage Morgan Lane Marin.

Johnson, who works in the firm's Kentfield office, said though the number of high-end listings - homes listed for more than $2 million - has been picking up recently, people who don't have to sell their homes are holding off.

"Most people in the upper-price brackets don't want to make unwise decisions with regard to the market because they don't know how far it's going to go down," she said.

Johnson said buyers in today's market are aware that sellers have to sell for one reason or another, usually financial, and "they know they can get a screaming deal."

Walsh said an added problem in the Bay Area is that "jumbo" financing remains relatively expensive "and, for many, hard to get.

"A solution to that problem will no doubt be part of the kindling that eventually re-ignites the Bay Area's high-end sales."

Throughout the Bay Area, 7,139 new and resale homes and condos sold. That was a 13 percent increase from the 6,325 sales in March and 13 percent up from the 6,310 sales one year ago.

Foreclosure sales accounted for less than half of all homes resold in the Bay Area last month for the first time in several months.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home last month inched above $300,000 for the first time in months with a price of $304,000, up from the March median of $290,000, but down 41 percent from last year.

Contact Jim Staats via e-mail at jstaats@marinij.com

California April Statewide Home Sales/Median Prices

2009-06-08T16:59:00Z

California April Statewide Home Sales/Median Prices

May 22, 2009

An estimated 37,967 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was up 4.8 percent from 36,215 in March and up 21.9 percent from 31,150 in April 2008. Sales have increased on a year-over-year basis the last 10 months. California sales for the month of April have varied from a low of 27,625 in 1995 to a peak of 71,638 in 2004, while the average is 45,088 sales. MDA DataQuick's statistics go back to 1988.

The median price paid for a home last month was $221,000, down 0.9 percent from $223,000 in March, and down 37.6 percent from $354,000 in April a year ago. The month-to-month decline in the median has been less than 1 percent for the past three months, compared with an average month-to-month decline of 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending this January. April’s median was 54.3 percent lower than the peak $484,000 median reached during several months in the spring of 2007.

The sharp decline in the median is mainly the result of two factors: home price depreciation, and a shift toward a higher portion of the state’s sales occurring in relatively affordable, foreclosure-heavy inland markets. For more than a year, sales have been extremely low in many higher-end markets, especially along the coast, which means those higher sale prices are missing from today’s statistics. The median is the point where half of the homes sold for more and half for less.

Of the existing homes sold last month, 55.1 percent were properties that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months. That compares with 56.7 percent in March and 37.6 percent a year ago. The peak: 58.8 percent in February this year.

The typical mortgage payment that home buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $929. That was down from $958 in March, and down from $1,683 for April a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, last month's mortgage payment was the lowest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The payment was 55.9 percent below the spring 1989 peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 64.3 percent below the current cycle's peak in June 2006.

MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains at historically high levels, while financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is at an all-time low, as is financing with multiple mortgages. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, and non-owner occupied buying activity is above-average in some markets, MDA DataQuick reported.

Marin Real Estate Sales for March 2009,

2009-04-23T17:16:00Z

Marin Real Estate Sales for March 2009
Single Family Homes
	Conventional Detached Dwellings			Condominiums/Townhouses
City	#Sales	Mean price	Median	#Sales	Mean price	Median
Belvedere	2	$4,050,000	$4,050,000	0
Corte Madera	7	855,714	760,000	2	379,625	379,625
Fairfax	4	546,250	647,500	0
Larkspur	1	575,000	575,000	1	655,000	655,000
Mill Valley	4	1,425,000	1,430,000	2	620,000	620,000
Novato	25	585,760	570,000	20	273,850	231,500
Ross	2	1,477,500	1,477,500	0
San Anselmo	6	934,167	625,000	0
San Rafael	13	649,070	670,000	15	273,007	190,000
Sausalito	1	1,300,000	1,300,000	2	848,750	848,750
Tiburon	3	4,176,329	3,825,000	0
Unincorporated	24	1,104,744	761,000	5	405,700	415,000
Total	92	$1,027,552	$699,500	47	$339,412	$250,000
Total Single Family Homes Sold: 139
Mean / Median Home Sale Price: $794,871 / $605,000
Mean Home Living Area: 1,731 sq. ft.

Report on the Outlook for Housing, Where will we find a bottom in housing prices?

2009-04-02T01:19:00Z

Hi,

Sorry I haven't blogged anything here in awhile. I've been out of the country. However, here is the Wells Fargo Special Outlook for Housing. Where will we find a bottom in housing prices? Read below on what Wells Fargo thinks...

Wells Fargo Report on Housing

Marin housing...a great long term play

2008-12-08T21:17:00Z

Local housing shows 5-year net value growth

Ken Harney

Sunday, December 7, 2008

(12-07) 04:00 PST Washington --

The latest federal statistics on housing prices in hundreds of local markets reveal patterns that haven't been making the nightly news: Nationwide, homeowners have lost more than $1 trillion in equity since the end of the boom, but the overwhelming majority of local markets continue to show net cumulative value growth over the past 60 months.

Nation's Housing

Ratings agencies accused in civil rights action 11.30.08
Loan modifications are not a cure-all 11.23.08
Lenders push appraisers for fresher comps 11.09.08
FTC cracking down on credit repair services 11.02.08

More Nation's Housing »

In fact, according to the third-quarter survey released Nov. 25 by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, out of 292 metropolitan markets, 273 showed positive net home values over the previous five years, while 19 were negative.

That may be of little comfort to consumers who bought houses late in the boom in 2004 and 2005, and are now underwater on their loans. But it's important for anyone who wants to understand real estate cycles and may be considering a purchase for the long term.

Unlike stocks, where your asset values can go from peak to zero in a matter of weeks, house values tend to be far slower-moving, and can be more durable over extended periods. Buy a house and hold on to it for five to 10 years in all but the most severely depressed local economies, and you'll probably see growth in its value, even if a rough patch of price deflation intervenes.

The housing agency's quarterly data track price changes in several hundred local markets stretching back to 1975. Unlike other indexes - which may omit entire states and give extra weight to high-cost, historically volatile areas - the agency covers every metropolitan market nationwide. Its data are based on repeat home sale and refinancing transactions where mortgages were funded, owned or contained in securities backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As a result, the properties tracked do not include houses financed with jumbo loans, and the survey data under-represent the subprime slice of the total marketplace.

In the latest quarterly study, dozens of local markets showed positive appreciation for the past 12 months, despite negative national numbers. Most of them are in areas with moderate housing costs that never experienced the hyperinflation of the boom.

For example, Austin, Texas, saw average housing prices gain by 5.6 percent during the past 12 months and by a cumulative 35.3 percent since the third quarter of 2003. Houses in Grand Junction, Colo., increased in value by 4.7 percent during the last 12 months and by a cumulative 66.1 percent over 60 months. Prices in Syracuse, N.Y., were up by 2.8 percent over the past year, and by 29.9 percent during the past five years.

Forty-three metropolitan markets saw appreciation gains of 2 percent or higher in the past year, while others - mainly in California, Florida and Nevada - experienced double-digit deflation. Twenty-seven metropolitan areas around the country have racked up 50 percent or higher cumulative gains since 2003. (The complete 85-page survey is available at www.fhfa.gov.)

The data also provide an overview of home values in many metropolitan areas that have seen losses in the past 12 months but are net positive over the last five years. For example, Chicago prices dropped by 3.8 percent in the past year but are up by a cumulative 28.3 percent since 2003. If you bought a $200,000 house in late 2003, in other words, it's likely to be worth $256,600 today. In Los Angeles, where prices exploded during the boom but plunged 18.8 percent last year, the cumulative value gain from third quarter 2003 through the same period this year is 45.6 percent, according to the data.

In Washington, D.C., and its suburbs, which saw a 12.5 percent price decline in the past year, the cumulative gain for homeowners over the past 60 months has been 43.7 percent. Other examples include Phoenix (negative 16.6 percent one year, positive net 48.3 percent over 60 months); San Francisco (negative 8 percent one year, 31.9 percent gain five years); Seattle (down 3 percent past 12 months, but up 54.9 percent for 60 months); and Tampa-St. Petersburg (down 15.1 percent for the year, but up 37.6 percent since 2003).

Among the top markets for cumulative gains over the past five years: Honolulu (up 78.7 percent), Virginia Beach, Va. (72.6 percent), Flagstaff, Ariz. (66.5 percent), Bellingham, Wash. (65.6 percent), Wilmington, N.C. (62.1 percent), and Baltimore (60.6 percent). Worst performers: Detroit (down 18.4 percent) followed by Merced and Stockton (San Joaquin County), both down 15 percent.

There's no question that there have been some painfully steep local declines in the past two years. But the statistical fact is that values in the overwhelming majority of markets are positive over a five-year timeline.

E-mail Ken Harney at kenharney@earthlink.net.

This article appeared on page K - 2 of the San Francisco Chronicle

Finding Deals In Marin County Real Estate

2008-09-29T22:40:00Z

The general theme of many e-mails of the Summer/early Fall has been “our buyers are waiting for the perfect house at the perfect price – we need more inventory”. While, this buyer feedback may be a disguise for multiple other objections, I suggest to you that our market is currently ripe with a breadth of opportunity at what could be very attractive prices.

In a speculative home building business, rarely do people seek opportunity via new listings. They are generally attracted to assets that are aging on the market or have recently fallen out of escrow. Whether it was a buyers’ or sellers’ market, these circumstances generally proved to favor the buyer.

If you are seeking opportunity, I encourage you to revisit the inventory with > 100 DOM. Approach the inventory with aggressive pricing. See slightly beyond the “dislikes” and consider what simple cosmetic improvements / landscaping can do to valuations. In many instances, a offer @ 10% below list price ($100K for every $1 million in value) may need modest ($15K per million) cosmetic improvements / landscaping to immediately recapture the discounted value.

The average DOM in Marin County is 88. There are seven (7) cities where one-third (33%) of the inventory has been on the market 100 days or longer. Cities include: Sausalito, Tiburon, Belvedere, Kentfield, San Rafael and Novato

Marin Sun Farms Tour

2008-09-16T23:19:00Z

On Sunday October 5th, you can take a ~TOUR OF MARIN SUN FARMS~. It includes a walking tour of the Historic "H" Ranch within the Point Reyes National Seashore (it starts at 10am). View and discuss Marin Sun Farms production of chickens for meat and eggs, cattle for beef, goats for meat, pasture management, food system sustainability, animal slaughter, and more. Includes a delicious lunch. For details and to sign up, please click here.

Marin Sun Farms is the extension of my family farm, nestled in the rolling grasslands of the Point Reyes National Seashore in Northern California. We are focused and committed to producing local, pasture based food for our Bay Area community with the aspiration of building a sustainable food model.

We strive to allign our production with the natural principles that a holistic, connected, perception of the world provides. We understand that an approach that mimics natural processes is the key to maintaining the stable functioning of our ecosystem. To that end, we raise 100% grass-fed beef, lamb, goat, pasture raised chickens, pork and simply the best eggs you've ever had.

We love to hear from like minded individuals and businesses with similar sustainable goals. Please feel free to contact us with any questions and comments.

“Pasture based food, that is locally produced, invites and inevitably satisfies the desire for a real sense of place, it connects us with the seasons and the natural world, and ultimately, after invigorating the palate, fortifying the body, and stimulating conversation, resonates a genuine appreciation of life.”

'To Eat Local, Kill Local'
San Francisco Magazine, August 2008

'Harvesting the Power of the Sun'
Think MTV, June 2008

calendar of events

JOIN OUR MEAT CSA!

Monthly packages!

Greater Savings!

Eggs are only available at our farmers markets and the MSF Butcher Shop, until sold out.

Our Commercial Kitchen and Communal Dining table is available to rent for private parties, catered dinners, or general commercial use.

The Butcher Shop is Open.

Location:

10905 Shoreline Highway One

Point Reyes Station, CA 94956

(415) 663-8997 Ext.204

Hours of Operation:

11am to 6pm every day

Economics a refresher course

2008-08-14T17:41:00Z

Economics: a refresher course

The US is in the midst of some serious economic turbulence — just try to sell a house or fill up a car, and you'll glimpse it firsthand. But for those of us without a background in finance, it's not always easy to discern how such disparate factors as the subprime mortgage fiasco, peak-oil pricing, and the surge of developing economies figure into local troubles — and what our government can do to better the situation.

For a professional opinion, we turned to economist John Campbell. The Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics at Harvard, Campbell has consulted to the Federal Reserve Board and has published over 60 articles in finance and economics journals. He's a former president of the American Finance Association, a co-author of the leading advanced textbook in empirical finance, and an expert in international markets — an ideal person to speak with about the current imbroglio.

AT: How serious is the current US economic crisis? Do you view this as a standard economic downturn or the beginning of a more serious situation? And given the uncertainty, what should the government be doing right now?

JC: Since World War II, the typical US recession has been caused by the Fed tightening monetary policy in response to rising inflation. The current situation is very different. The economy is weak for several nonstandard reasons. First, the housing downturn and the heavy burden of debt have tightened US consumers' budgets, leading to weakness in consumer spending. Second, the housing downturn has depleted the capital of the US banking system, so credit has become less available, and more expensive, both for businesses and consumers. Third, the relative prices of energy and food have changed dramatically. This requires a reallocation of resources towards agriculture, energy production and conservation, and related technologies; such a reallocation across sectors often reduces output in the short term.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is well aware of the importance of stabilizing the US financial system. As an academic, he studied the Great Depression intensively and argued that the weakness of US banks contributed to the severity of the depression in the early 1930s. He also argued that Japanese policy toward financial institutions was too passive in the 1990s. I believe the measures he has taken will prevent disruptive failures at the core of our financial system, although there are likely to be multiple failures of smaller institutions, including regional banks with mortgage exposures.

The danger is that while curing the patient's acute symptoms, the doctor may exacerbate chronic health problems. Specifically, easy monetary policy in combination with high energy and food prices has already allowed inflation to creep up, and inflation is likely to increase further before the Fed can act against it. I do not question the Fed's continued commitment to long-run inflation stability, but if US investors and workers come to doubt it, there could be a painful period while the Fed reestablishes its credibility as an inflation fighter.

Also, the Fed's actions have shown that large investment banks and the housing agencies (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) will not be permitted to fail. If these firms are to be protected at taxpayer expense, they must be regulated to control the risks they take. This is a lesson that we learned painfully in the 1980s, when federally insured savings and loans invested recklessly, knowing that any profits would accrue to the S&L owners, while losses would be borne by the taxpayer. However, the investment-banking business is extraordinarily complex and will be difficult to regulate in a rational manner without choking off beneficial financial innovation.

AT: What are the implications of China's economic rise, and the existence of a more level economic playing field worldwide?

JC: When China and other formerly isolated developing countries first integrated with the world economy, they provided an immense supply of unskilled labor and little else. The effect was to increase the rewards to skilled workers and owners of capital, while depressing the relative wages of unskilled workers. (It is important, however, to keep in mind that technology has probably been a more important influence on unskilled wages than trade or immigration.)

In recent years, China has accumulated both capital and skills, with spectacular benefits for Chinese prosperity. This increase in the standard of living of one fifth of humanity is surely something to celebrate. From the narrow US perspective, however, the effects are mixed. On the one hand, China provides an immense market and is starting to contribute to the advance of technology, with positive effects on productivity worldwide. On the other hand, Chinese demand for natural resources is raising their price, making the traditional US resource-intensive way of life much less affordable. In addition, Chinese energy consumption is greatly increasing carbon emissions, shortening the length of time that we have to deal with the problem of global climate change.

AT: Are you in favor of a carbon tax to combat excessive energy consumption, as many economists are? What other suggestions do you have to deal with global warming?

JC: I think global warming is a major threat — probably the most serious threat to the wellbeing of my children and their future descendants. I strongly favor a carbon tax because it uses the power of the price system to reallocate resources and stimulate innovation. The problem is too large to solve through moral suasion, and a bureaucratic regulatory solution will be prohibitively complex and costly to implement.

Government can also play a helpful role by removing obstacles to innovation and reducing uncertainty about regulation and tax incentives. Reorganizing our energy system will require major work on infrastructure, including offshore wind farms, new power transmission systems to link the windy plains with electricity demand on the coasts, carbon capture and storage facilities, and perhaps a new generation of nuclear-power plants. It is unrealistic to think that these systems will arise without thoughtful policy to establish the rules governing the private-sector players.

AT: One commonly cited cause of the subprime-mortgage crisis is that borrowers didn't realize what they were getting into when they signed on with lenders. What regulations (if any) should be put in place?

JC: It is true that many subprime borrowers did not understand the risks they were taking in the mid-2000s. The irony is that investors who bought subprime securities also failed to understand these risks. Almost all mortgage-market participants shared the belief that house prices would continue to rise as they had done in the past. On the basis of this belief, borrowers and lenders agreed that there was little need to worry about what would happen if house prices declined, since house prices were extremely unlikely to fall by any large amount or for a prolonged period of time. In an environment of rising house prices, most borrowers were expected to be able to refinance their mortgages after a couple of years; the high rates charged by many subprime mortgages after the first rate adjustment were expected to apply only to a small minority of borrowers experiencing financial problems that would make them unable to refinance. In effect, these high rates were supposed to compensate lenders for the high risk of a small pool of non-refinancing mortgages.

In retrospect, it is clear that the belief in ever-rising house prices was self-destroying. As more and more investors piled into residential real estate, house prices reached unsustainable levels, setting the stage for a historically unprecedented decline in prices. This price decline prevented the refinancing that both subprime borrowers and lenders had anticipated, leading to the current crisis.

The main factor that will prevent a recurrence of the subprime crisis is that lenders have learned a painful lesson about the behavior of speculative market prices: any market whose participants believe that prices can only go up is a market that is becoming overpriced and will eventually experience a major correction. Regulation can play a supportive role. It may be appropriate to require that mortgage originators should retain a portion of the mortgage risk on their own books, since this will give them incentives to manage the risks of their lending. Regulation of mortgage brokers can also be helpful — it appears that the current housing crisis is worst in those states, such as California and Nevada, that had particularly weak regulation — but the most important discipline on brokers is the caution of lenders, who are no longer willing to pay brokers large commissions on risky high-rate loans.

A rather different problem in consumer finance is that many financial products have features that reward consumers who make active, smart decisions. One obvious example is the traditional US fixed-rate mortgage with a refinancing option. In my 2006 presidential address to the American Finance Association, "Household Finance" (published in the Journal of Finance, August 2006), I presented evidence that sophisticated borrowers are much quicker to refinance, leaving unsophisticated borrowers paying unnecessarily high mortgage rates. Because mortgage markets are competitive, mortgage lenders pass on the dollars they receive from unsophisticated borrowers in the form of lower mortgage rates. In effect, unsophisticated households subsidize the mortgage costs of sophisticated households. There may be room for government policy to promote innovative mortgages that eliminate such cross-subsidy, perhaps through automatic refinancing provisions.

AT: What do you think are the most significant economic issues facing the next president?

JC: The next president has a particularly full plate. The most urgent economic issue is, of course, the stability of the financial system, and particularly our system of housing finance. But the next president must not let the urgent drive out the important. Restructuring health care, addressing the explosive costs of entitlements (especially Medicare), developing policies for energy security and climate change, rationalizing the tax code, restoring some momentum to world-trade negotiations, and finding a sensible compromise on immigration policy are all hugely important challenges. If the next president is to have any hope of solving these problems within our democratic political system, he will need to shift the public's current pessimistic mood and remind people of the benefits of an open world economy. This task will require political skill of the highest order.

- This interview was conducted by Benjamin Hart

Marin Real Estate New Escrow Stats, Market Update

2008-07-14T17:04:00Z

Attached you will find our Marin County Single Family Homes Market Dynamics Report for July 14^th. Once again the blue bars and lines illustrate New Escrows by week and the green bars and lines illustrate Sold (closings) by week.

In summary, the summer season has arrived:

· For the second week since April 1^st new escrows (Single Family Homes) have fallen below 40 per week.

· The peak was 62 new escrows (SFH) the week of June 23^rd

· New Single Family Home escrows will likely remain below 40 per week for the next 4 weeks.

· We anticipate an increase in activity (> 40 per week) again in the second half of August.

Notes to Sellers - All properties being equal (which they are not) and all property marketing efforts being equal (which they are not), pricing your home realistically is the best strategy for maximizing proceeds. On average, homes sold in 30 days or less trade at 99% of list price while those closing after 100 days on the market trade at 94% of the adjusted list price (after one or more reductions). Time on the market is not a successful strategy for sellers. The key is realistic pricing!

Notes to Buyers – This is a great time to be a Buyer! On average we are dealing with a market off 5% at the low end to up 8% on the high end vs. same time last year. The best properties sell in the first week at or over asking prices. Be prepared with a pre-approved mortgage from a top tier lender, Expectations for near term appreciation should be modest. Appreciation over 3 – 5 years will likely be 5% - 8% annually.

New Escrow Stats

Fed plans new rules to protect future homebuyers

2008-07-08T18:04:00Z

Fed plans new rules to protect future homebuyers

By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer 48 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve will issue new rules next week aimed at protecting future homebuyers from dubious lending practices, its most sweeping response to a housing crisis that has propelled foreclosures to record highs. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke of the much-awaited rules in a broader speech Tuesday about the challenges confronting policymakers in trying to stabilize a shaky U.S. financial system. To that end, Bernanke said the Fed may give squeezed Wall Street firms more time to tap the central bank's emergency loan program.

To prevent a repeat of the current mortgage mess, Bernanke said the Fed will adopt rules cracking down on a range of shady lending practices that has burned many of the nation's riskiest "subprime" borrowers — those with spotty credit or low incomes — who were hardest hit by the housing and credit debacles.

The plan, which will be voted on at a Fed board meeting on Monday, would apply to new loans made by thousands of lenders of all types, including banks and brokers.

Under the proposal unveiled last December, the rules would restrict lenders from penalizing risky borrowers who pay loans off early, require lenders to make sure these borrowers set aside money to pay for taxes and insurance and bar lenders from making loans without proof of a borrower's income. It also would prohibit lenders from engaging in a pattern or practice of lending without considering a borrower's ability to repay a home loan from sources other than the home's value.

"These new rules ... will address some of the problems that have surfaced in recent years in mortgage lending, especially high-cost mortgage lending," Bernanke said.

Consumer groups have complained that the proposed rules aren't strong enough, while mortgage lenders worry that they are too tough and could crimp customers' choices.

In an extraordinary action aimed at averting a financial catastrophe, the Fed in March agreed to let investment houses go to the Fed — on a temporary basis — for a quick, overnight source of cash. Those loan privileges, which are supposed to last through mid-September, are similar to those permanently afforded to commercial banks for years.

"We are currently monitoring developments in financial markets closely and considering several options, including extending the duration of our facilities for primary dealers beyond year-end should the current unusual and exigent circumstances continue to prevail in dealer funding markets," Bernanke said in prepared remarks to a mortgage-lending forum in Arlington, Va.

The Fed's decision to act — temporarily at least — as a lender of last resort for Wall Street firms was made after a run on Bear Stearns pushed the investment bank to the brink of bankruptcy and raised fears that others might be in jeopardy. It was the broadest use of the Fed's lending powers since the 1930s.

Bear Stearns was eventually taken over by JPMorgan Chase & Co., with the Fed providing $28.82 billion in financial backing.

Those controversial decisions have drawn criticism from Democrats in Congress and elsewhere that the Fed is bailing out Wall Street and putting billions of taxpayer dollars at risk.

Bernanke, in appearances on Capitol Hill has said he doesn't believe taxpayers will suffer any losses.

In his speech Tuesday, the Fed chief defended those actions anew. If the Fed didn't intervene, he said, problems in financial markets would have snowballed, imperiling the country.

"Allowing Bear Stearns to fail so abruptly at a time when the financial markets were already under considerable stress would likely have had extremely adverse implications for the financial system and for the broader economy," Bernanke said to the mortgage forum, organized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The Fed's consideration of giving Wall Street firms more time to tap the Fed's emergency loan program is part of an ongoing effort by the central bank to bring back stability to fragile financial markets and help to bolster shaky confidence on the part of investors.

Policymakers — in the White House, in Congress and other federal agencies — will need to work together to come up with ways to make the U.S. financial system more resilient and stable and to prevent a repeat of the types of problems that brought about the end of Bear Stearns, an 85-year-old institution, Bernanke said.

Although those efforts are already under way and will be the focus of a House Financial Services Committee hearing Thursday, it will fall to the next president and next Congress to settle them. Both Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are scheduled to testify at Thursday's hearing.

The Bush administration has proposed revamping the nation's financial regulatory structure. That plan would make the Fed an ubercop in charge of financial market stability. But the Fed would lose daily supervision of big banks. Bernanke said the Fed must maintain this power if it is to be an effective overseer of financial stability.

The Fed, which regulates banks, and the Securities and Exchange Commission, which oversees investment firms, announced an information-sharing agreement on Monday aimed at better detecting potential risks to the financial system.

Over the longer term, though, Congress may need to adopt legislation to bolster supervision of investment banks and other large securities dealers, Bernanke said.

Bernanke recommended that Congress give a regulator the authority to set standards for capital, liquidity holdings and risk management practices for the holding companies of the major investment banks. Currently, the SEC's oversight of these holding companies is based on a voluntary agreement between the SEC and those firms.

Jason's Restaurant now in Greenbrae

2008-07-02T19:00:00Z

Here is an Ij review of Jason's restaurant...one of our favorites in Greenbrae.

You can also read reviews on Jason's at yelp @ http://www.yelp.com/biz/jasons-restaurant-greenbrae-2

Dining Out: Creativity meets visual appeal at Jason's

Leslie Harlib

Article Launched: 06/04/2008 05:06:36 PM PDT

I was a fan of Jason's when it fed people in a small space in an industrial neighborhood in San Rafael where, against all odds, it flourished for 3 1/2 years.

In early May, chef Jason Lee, who owns his eponymous restaurant with his parents, opened doors in Greenbrae in the spot that was formerly Giorgio's.

The huge new venue appears to be paying off. In just a month of business it's already packed at lunch and dinner with regulars and newcomers who are developing a taste for Lee's imaginatively plated, full-bodied dishes.

Jason's emphasizes seafood. Most preparations have an Italian flair, though some show Asian influences. There are even a couple with Cajun zip. The same menu (with the addition of a few sandwiches) is available at lunch and dinner; the portions are a smaller and the prices lower at lunch.

In terms of comfort, little, if anything, has changed from the Giorgio's days. The restaurant was one of the more welcoming in the county and still is.

A huge covered outdoor patio surrounded by potted plants and with clear plastic tenting to block wind is one of the nicest in mid-Marin. Inside, there's a pleasant bar with high stools and a few low tables and chairs. The asymmetrical main dining area with its creamy gold walls features banquettes, padded chairs and tables that stretch into the back of the large space. I'd sum it up as an amalgam of comfortable, casual and upscale. You could be at ease here in jeans and a T-shirt, or all spruced up for a romantic evening out.

A starter of Hawaiian poke ($14) is as good as it was when Lee built a following for it in San Rafael. It seemed more impressive here because the atmosphere is so much more appealing. A martini glass bristled with four long strips of deep-fried wonton skin. It was piled with finely chopped cucumber in a garlic sauce; these in turn were mounded with chilled ahi tuna chunks that gleamed like a rubble of rubies glossed with a mild, slightly Asian-inspired dressing hefting a little back-kick of heat.

Dragon prawns ($12) were four lightly tempuraed prawns striated with an unusual wasabi-based aioli plus a spoonful of bright orange tobiko to add crunch and color. They were deftly, greaselessly fried. As a basic fried shrimp starter goes, it was in a thoughtful class by itself.

A nightly special of seared scallops ($28), four to the order, were served over penne pasta slicked with a light pesto sauce and plenty of fresh diced tomato. It was a hearty dish thanks to plenty of pasta. The scallops were juicy, seared to a deep mahogany. But for the price, I thought it was a raw deal.

Much better - in fact the highlight of our meal - was a combination that may be one of the most solidly creative in Marin: It's billed as Cajun ahi tuna ($24). You get plenty of just-seared slices of ahi tuna piled on soft mashed potatoes, then dotted with a sweet/tangy mango salsa. Leaning against this construction was a vertical bouquet of tempuraed green beans. Everything was cooked just right. It looked like an art piece and tasted like a chamber jazz arrangement: Sweet, a hint of spice, smooth, crunchy, vegetal, velvety. Wow. I'd eat this any time under any circumstances for any meal.

While the menu offers chicken and a couple of steaks, it's pretty solidly weighted toward seafood. Other dishes include ceviche ($10) of assorted seafood; crab cakes ($13); blackened salmon Caesar salad ($20); linguine and clams in a white wine garlic sauce ($19); and a mixture called Cajun pasta ($20), Italian sausage, tiger prawns and mushrooms in a spicy red sauce with rigatoni.

I like that Jason's has a full bar. You're not limited to beer and wine; in addition, some of these dishes, such as the Cajun tuna, would be perfectly complimented by a cocktail such as a margarita or daiquiri, just for a change.

Desserts are made in-house. Bananas Foster is not worth the $11 price tag, as it's maybe a banana and a half sauteed in butter and brown sugar and served over a large scoop of vanilla ice cream. However, I loved a coconut creme brulee ($8), its coconut flavor adding richness and smoothness to the traditional presentation of custard in a shallow dish with the thinnest of crackling sugar crusts on top. Following that tuna, this was the perfect dessert.

Our server was excellent: Attentive and not overly familiar. He made sure the rhythm of our meal went smoothly. If he was knowledgeable about the dishes, I don't know. We didn't need to ask because the menu is clearly written and you get a strong sense of what each preparation is about.

With the carpeting and all the padded furniture, Jason's was also relatively quiet, even though it was packed on a Wednesday night. That's another plus.

Lee is a young talent to watch. He's particularly effective at turning out plates that look as appetizing as they taste. His restaurant, once it's more grounded and his dreams of expanding the menu are in place, will likely claim the reward of being one of the most popular in the county. Based on how much business he's getting, it already is.

REVIEW

Jason's

Address: 300 Drakes Landing Road, Greenbrae

Phone: 925-0808

Web site: www.jasonsrestaurant.com

Cuisine: California with Italian and world accents emphasizing seafood

Service: Good, attentive, knowledgeable

Noise level: Tolerable when crowded

Recommended dishes: Ahi poke; seared Cajun ahi tuna; coconut creme brulee

Liquor selection: Full bar, wine and beer

Corkage: $12

Heart-healthy and vegetarian selections: Minimal

Parking: Free lot on site

Wheelchair access: Yes

Hours: Lunch, 11:30 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. weekdays; dinner 5 to 9 weekdays, until 10 p.m. weekends.

Credit cards: Most major cards

Summary: Jason's, which built a large following in its 3 1/2 years on Andersen Drive in San Rafael, is sitting pretty in Greenbrae. It fills the space that was formerly Giorgio's with a crowd of regulars who show up at lunch and dinner for the better-than-average, often creative seafood dishes with Italian, Asian, even Cajun flair. Some plates here are so good they're a destination in themselves.

Leslie Harlib can be reached at lharlib@marinij.com.