Buyers Are Back and Seeking Opportunity-
Don’t Confuse Activity with Appreciation

Recent escrow activity levels have been refreshing if not invigorating. New escrows generated in April –
June ’09 represent the three best months since June ’07. This progress seems to be continuing.

In fact, we could experience the busiest summer in Marin County real estate in recent years.
This increase in activity (not price appreciation) follows the slowest six month stretch we have seen in
sixteen years. Closings of Marin County single family homes in the 4th quarter of ’08 (457) was the lowest
since 1994. Closings in 1st quarter ’09 (222) and 2nd quarter ’09 (421) both set the sixteen year low as well.
We feel this recent rally is a reflection of increasing consumer confidence either as a result of, or in combination
with, the stock market rebound which began in March ’09.

Apr – Jun              $500K - $1M                $1M & Up                            $1 - $3M                   $3 Million +
Volume                        7.09%                       -56.24%                              -49.81%                     -76.61%
Units Sold                  9.31%                         -51.49%                              -49.16%                    -70.00%
Average Price            -2.03%                           -9.66%                                -1.27%                     -17.02%
Median Price              -2.28%                          -1.87%                                  1.38%                     -14.35%
Days on Market         41.77%                         29.69%                                  1.27%                      15.53%

On a year-over-year basis, pricing of single family homes in Marin County is a completely different
comparison. Depending on your neighborhood, the value of your home could be off 15% - 40% from its
peak. As we have documented in previous newsletters, Marin County real estate was impacted by two
financial factors. Beginning in August 2007, the northern part of the county (Novato and areas of San
Rafael) suffered from the sub-prime lending crisis. The activity level in Central and Southern Marin was
nearly frozen from October ’08 thru mid-March ’09- a result of the stock market meltdown.
Now, our recovery is driven by an increase in units sold. Today’s buyers are driven by value and opportunity.
Sellers clinging to what they recently paid for a home or what they need to sell it for seem to be
grasping at “hope” and have become frustrated in a buyers’ market where days on the market produces
diminishing returns.
To transition the above table to positive/green indicators and price appreciation, we will need to see a
substantial increase and sustained level of demand. May and June ’09 activity may represent the beginning
of this recovery. However, the current rally is in units sold, not price appreciation.
Buyer opportunities in the Marin market are extraordinary. The recent pricing of homes back to levels seen
in the early part of the decade, combined with very attractive mortgage rates and flexible, if not motivated
sellers, represent ideal conditions for investing in Marin County real estate. If you compare your investment
in Marin County real estate to other prestigious communities throughout the USA or the results in the stock
markets, Marin County real estate may be the best performing asset in your portfolio.
For details on your home or investment strategy, please feel free to call us.

For more detailed information and graphs please see our attached quarterly newsletter -